Elaine Loughlin: Rise of Michelle O’Neill may pose a threat to Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership

Sinn Féin members themselves aren’t entertaining such a prospect, at least not publicly, and continue to vehemently support Mary Lou McDonald.

But as she leads her party into what could be a defining local and European elections, McDonald has seen support for Sinn Féin drop. 

The party has also been accused of floundering and flip-flopping on the thorny issue of migration and open borders.

As president of a party that at it’s core believes that there should be no border on the island of Ireland, McDonald has found herself trying to explain how Sinn Féin is also in “not for open borders”. 

When you are explaining, as the saying goes, you are probably losing, or at the very least causing significant confusion.

EU Migration Pact

Her explanations came after Cork TD Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire drew criticism from both Government and opposition politicians for claiming Sinn Féin was “opposed to open borders” in a social media video about the EU’s Migration Pact.

When questioned, McDonald was to quick to defend her party’s rhetoric on “open borders”, arguing that it has long been her position on immigration.

She claimed there has been “a lot of misinformation” around migration and instead accused the Government of “scrambling” on the issue.

“Sinn Féin is not for open borders, we are for a system that is fair, human rights compliant, efficient,” she said.

Struggling to form a clear message on immigration, McDonald has increasingly been targeted by far-right protesters.

She was among the politicians who appeared on a mock gallows brought to the front of Leinster House last September.

In recent days nasty slogans have been daubed close to her constituency office in Dublin.

Across the border, Michelle O’Neill, it seems can almost do no wrong.

Her apology for attending the funeral of senior Sinn Féin and IRA figure Bobby Storey in west Belfast back in 2020 when covid protocols were still in place, was viewed as significant. 

It marked a departure from the defensive, closed ranks nature of the party.

“I know that my actions also angered the families and for that I’m truly sorry. I am sorry for going and I’m sorry for the harm that’s been caused after [it],” she told the covid inquiry.

Asked if she realised the anger that going to the funeral would cause, she said: “I didn’t but I ought to have”.

Her comments have been viewed as an honest admission, reflective of a fresh approach being taken by the new first minister.

O’Neill, who became pregnant at 16, but still managed to continue her education, is also the type of good news story voters appreciate.

“I was determined that I wasn’t going to be written off, that I was going to work hard and make a good life for [my daughter],” she told reporters back in 2021.

Solid relations in Stormont

In Stormont, O’Neill has forged a warm and solid relationship with deputy first minister Emma Little-Pengelly which, according to those in both parties, is sincere.

Much has been made of the fact that two children of the Troubles and the daughters of rival militants have now become leaders in a post-Good Friday Northern Ireland.

Both women appeared genuinely at ease in each other’s company when they took to the stage together at a conveyor-belt of events in Washington to mark St Patrick’s Day.

O’Neill represents an open and humble style of politics, one where she is not afraid to admit past mistakes and build unlikely alliances that can only bring about a more positive future.

While clearly tongue-in-cheek, RTÉ’s Callan’s Kicks show recently hit the nail on the head in a radio skit which depicted McDonald as a “bit of a ranty Republican” whereas O’Neill was described as a “more scented candle-style Republican”.

In March, a poll gave O’Neill a popularity rating of 55% among Republic of Ireland voters. In contrast, the Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll put McDonald on just 39%.

The figures show how the tables have turned since 2018 when O’Neill as the party’s newly appointed vice president often appeared in McDonald’s shadow when she accompanied her at events in Northern Ireland.

In the early days she was also dismissed by unionists as Adams’ puppet, unable to act without the approval of the hierarchy. 

When asked what word she would use to described O’Neill, former DUP leader Arlene Foster famously answered “blonde”.

But despite a hesitant start, O’Neill is now seen as a confident but down-to-earth politician, who has pledged to be a first minister “for all”.

Back over on the southern side of the border, Sinn Féin has gone from a high of 36% support in 2022, to a low of 23% in one recent poll. 

Although the true level of support may be closer to the high 20s judging from other tallies, it is still a dramatic dive.

McDonald, having lost more than 100 council seats in the 2019 local elections must make significant ground in the upcoming elections.

It has been suggested in recent weeks that Sinn Féin, having underestimated the level of support ahead of the 2020 general elections where the party did not field enough candidates to take advantage of the groundswell of support it enjoyed, may now have overestimated how well it will do in June’s elections with too many candidates on ballot papers.

A lot can happen in the dying days of a campaign as McDonald learned when her party romped home back in 2020, topping polls and claiming far more Dáil seats than even she expected.

But if Sinn Féin truly want to be an all-island party into the future, it may need to look at consolidating the leadership structure and with O’Neill on the rise that may not bode well for McDonald.