At the start of this coalition, most inside the party would never have imagined Martin remaining on as leader longer than a year, let alone an entire government term.

Now, as this coalition nears the end of its term, talk has turned to the possibility of Martin returning after a general election as taoiseach.

It's in stark contrast to what was a shaky start for the Cork South-Central politician at the helm of the three-stool coalition.

Many had written his political obituary in September 2021, as Fianna Fáil members gathered in Co Cavan for their think-in where issues of election failure and a party lacking in purpose were viciously bubbling under the surface.

Botched coup

A botched coup, which only ever amounted to a half-hearted attempt to take the leader out, at the two-day event softened the cough of those who had been most vocal in their criticisms of Martin.

But the grumblings have continued, albeit with lesser intent.

Fianna Fáil members have always raised Martin's aloof leadership style and the fact when it comes to significant decisions he relies on his innermost circle of non-elected advisers rather than his fellow TDs or cabinet colleagues.

Senior members of the parliamentary party are often left in the dark on what Martin may be thinking, especially on moves that directly impact Fianna Fáil.

But Martin's consistently high personal ratings in the polls have helped to quell any moves against him, even if he has never been loved by his party in a way Bertie Ahern or even Brian Cowen was in his earlier days.

He has also managed to stay two steps ahead of his detractors, allowing him to retain full control at the helm of his party.

Keeping his biggest threats at bay is a tactic deployed.

When the future of Fianna Fáil is discussed, McGrath as an experienced, level-headed and now highly qualified politician, is a name that has consistently been raised as a potential successor to Martin.

In elevating the Finance Minister to the European Commission, the Fianna Fáil leader has ousted a constituency rival, but still managed to keep him happy.

It is likely, however, the McGrath name will remain on the Fianna Fáil ticket in the next general election, after the minister's brother Seamus topped the poll in Carrigaline, taking home 5,191 votes and getting reelected to the council on the first count.

But if he runs and is elected in his brother's place, as a first time TD that particular McGrath would not be seen as a leadership contender, at least in the short term.

Other names floated about when heaves or succession is spoken about in Fianna Fáil circles is Minister of State Jack Chambers.

Martin also moved to slow his march last week when he appointed him Fianna Fáil's deputy leader, a role that had been vacated since when Dara Calleary was forced to resign in 2020 over his attendance at the Golfgate event during a covid lockdown in August 2020.

Announcing the appointment, Martin said it was coming as part of a "reorganisation of Fianna Fail in terms of resetting ourselves in the context of the next eight months and, in particular, the next general election".

It was announced on Tuesday that Chambers would succeed McGrath as finance minister, with the Tánaiste saying he is “very able, intelligent” and will be a “very effective minister”.

Martin has constantly dismissed speculation on everything from potential EU positions to a tilt at the Áras and has insisted he is focused on leading Fianna Fáil into the next general election.

But he has put himself in a position that ensures he will be the one who decides his next political moves.