Fergus Finlay: Soup budget designed to keep us fed until after an early election

When he got serious, and talked about Ireland right now, he made the sort of telling points that ought to shape — and I hope will shape — an election campaign. He described our country as “a paradox of plenty, if ever there was one”.

But it was the line about gravy or soup that stuck in my head. You know the thing about a bowl of soup? No matter how good it is, it won’t keep you full for long. It might keep you going from lunch to dinner, but you’re going to be hungry then. So if the government had an election budget in mind, and all they gave us was a tasty bowl of soup, they’re definitely going to have to call the election sooner rather than later.

I’ll tell you what I think is the most likely date in a minute. First I have to admit I got things slightly wrong last week. I thought there’d be enough imagination about this budget to give them a realistic chance of completing the full term and going to the country in the spring. That would have required something really big and newsy, creative and imaginative even, to start a conversation and give people something to look forward to.

Certainly if I’d had months to prepare a budget, and knew I was starting with a massive surplus to be spent on decent and exciting capital projects, I hope I wouldn’t have ended up with a cynical bowl of soup like this

A major scheme to really help young people onto the housing ladder, maybe. A huge breakthrough in social housing provision, perhaps. Or a massive programme to equip homes all over the country with solar power — there’s enough money for 90% grants, for heaven’s sake, and what a payoff there could be from that for the whole country.

In short, they had more than enough time to build some real lasting monuments — things they’d be remembered for. But it became clear they’re not really interested in building something lasting. They really just want to create a “feel-good” vibe to last a few weeks.

In fact, as I listened to the speeches, the other thing that came into my mind was the poem Ozymandias we learned in secondary school (it’s still on the curriculum occasionally, I gather).

The poem describes the words engraved on the base of a statue in a far off land — “My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”

But all the rest of the statue is in crumbling ruins on the ground — “Nothing beside remains. Round the decay of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare, the lone and level sands stretch far away.”

Without wanting to sound too grandiose, if this budget was meant to be a monument, soon enough nothing beside will remain.

But despite the lack of imagination or even political strategy, the budget will of course have a life — about two months

 That won’t be based on people’s memory of stirring speeches, but on the short-term, mainly once-off payouts happening between now and Christmas. That’s why it’s possible now to have a pretty good guess about when the election will take place.

Immediately after the budget, Simon Harris was asked again about when the election would be. His answer was qualitatively different to all previous answers to the same question. “Look,’ he said (I’m paraphrasing slightly), “I don’t just want to pass a budget, I want to pass the legislation that makes it real for people”. That’s just two pieces of law — the Finance Act and the Social Welfare Act — that will be completed by the end of November at the latest.

And then over the next couple of months this is what will happen. Every mother with children will get an extra €280 for each child in November, and again on the first Tuesday in December. That’s €560 for each child — on top of existing child benefit. Between now and the first week in December every pensioner will get two extra week’s pension — one this month and a “Christmas bonus”. And the pensions will be €12 bigger. Thousands of us will get a lump sum between €200 and €400, depending on our circumstances, next month.

That’s the cost of living element of the social welfare package. On the tax side most of us will gain immediately because of reductions in USC and increases in tax bands.

Even when you bear in mind — and it’s true — that this is just a nice bowl of soup not designed to sustain us into the long term or even to enable us to plan for a better future, the reality is that as the words of budget day start to translate into figures, most of us are going to feel a bit better off, able to face at least the immediate future with more confidence. People will see a lot of money going into their bank accounts and a lot being handed over post office counters.

And that’s when we’ll be asked to vote — when we’re feeling as good as we’re likely to feel. As far away from Christmas as possible to minimise complications with the counting, but only after everyone has seen enough of an effect on their ability to pay immediate bills.

So late November or early December.

A December election is not unprecedented, even though the nights will be drawing in and so might the weather. I was involved in a late November election back in 1992, and that worked out pretty well!

My gut instinct is the politicians would prefer to go a little bit earlier than December, maybe between the first and second of the big pension and social welfare payouts, but still in time to capture the feel-good vibe they’ve been so busy creating. So Friday, November 15. All day. You can bet on that.