Elaine Loughlin: Mary Lou McDonald has put Taoiseach in a dream position

Mary Lou McDonald has put the Taoiseach, who ultimately will decide when the election is called, in a dream position.

The high of 37% which the party reached in the polls exactly two years ago may never again be repeated, at least in the short or even medium term, but the real question now is how much lower will Sinn Féin support plummet.

Before the latest revelations exploded into the public domain, Sinn Féin had been sitting at 18%; a poll due out on Sunday will be tightly watched.

RESULTS: GENERAL ELECTION 2024

Scroll for results in your area

Cork East

Cork North Central

Cork North West

Cork South Central

Cork South West

Kerry

Clare

Limerick City

Limerick County

Tipperary North

Tipperary South

Waterford

Dublin Bay North

Dublin Bay South

Dublin Central

Dublin Fingal East

Dublin Fingal West

Dublin Mid West

Dublin North West

Dublin Rathdown

Dublin South Central

Dublin South West

Dublin West

Dun Laoghaire

Carlow/Kilkenny

Kildare North

Kildare South

Laois

Longford/Westmeath

Louth

Meath East

Meath West

Offaly

Wexford

Wicklow

Wicklow/Wexford

Cavan/Monaghan

Donegal

Galway East

Galway West

Mayo

Roscommon/Galway

Sligo/Leitrim

If McDonald’s party is negatively impacted by a week of controversy, where will that support go?

A number of Green Party members have been anxiously surmising that if Fine Gael continues on its upwards trajectory and Fianna Fáil picks up some of the votes lost by Sinn Féin, the two civil war parties could potentially return with enough seats between them to form a coalition after the next election.

However, such an arrangement would only bolster the notion that the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael parties are now one and the same and this is an arrangement that Harris and Micheál Martin would be highly cautious of.

Third coalition partner in next Dáil

Instead, adding a third stool, whether that is the Greens or another smaller party, would be a more comfortable situation for the two leaders and would also provide the government with a numerical cushion.

But building a reality based on assumptions can quickly be viewed as arrogance, which never goes down well with the electorate which we know can be very fickle.

Playing politics when it comes to serious and concerning issues also doesn’t wash with voters.

As questions continued to be raised around four separate but ongoing scandals involving now former members of Sinn Féin, McDonald accused her detractors of simply using the revelations, some of which centre around serious child protection issues, as a political football for electoral advantage.

It was a narrative that was strongly pushed by a number in the party, with one senior TD suggesting that far from benefitting government politicians, Sinn Féin’s woes would actually damage them.

“I think they have overcooked the goose,” the TD said, stating that constituents had been in touch to voice outrage at how the party had been treated.

Politicians do have a gift for spin.

After taking 20 minutes to outline the party’s stance on the separate controversies which have resulted in the resignation of two TDs, a senator and two press officers, McDonald looked across the Dáil to address the Government benches.

“Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil say they are not looking to make a political football out of child safety. People will make up their own minds on the sincerity of those statements.”

She added: “Ladies and gentlemen, your cynicism is matched only by your hypocrisy, which is truly, truly breathtaking.”

The line delivered from a prepared script significantly jarred with the fact that just minutes earlier when Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman opened the session on child protection and did not once mention the turmoil overcoming Sinn Féin.

The Taoiseach himself, who like many of his Fine Gael colleagued has never been shy of criticising Sinn Féin, refrained from making any statement on Ms McDonald’s explanations that day.

When he was questioned by journalists on the matter the following day, he insisted that Sinn Féin’s woes would not have any bearing on the timing of an election.

November 29, as proposed openly by O’Gorman yesterday, now appears to be the logical, practical and most favoured date to hold a general election.

It would provide the Government the opportunity to pass a number of priority Bills next week, including legislation to allow women to defer maternity leave in cases of serious illness.

Harris in recent weeks has also emphasised the need to publish the Government’s revised housing targets.

The next sub-cabinet meeting on housing is to take place next Thursday, allowing the figures, which are widely expected to land somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 homes per year, to be brought to Cabinet the following week.

The final box to tick would be the Finance Bill, which allows many of the measures outlined in Budget 2025 to take effect.

The Bill is scheduled to go to committee on November 5, with the speculation that it would get through the Oireachtas by the Wednesday night of that week, leaving Harris free to go to the Park on Thursday.

A second election option being floated is December 6, but in a uniquely Irish situation it would mean that The Late Late Toy Show would be interrupted to bring news of an exit poll, which could put a dampener on the festive cheer.

Coupled with this is the fact that pushing a poll into December may also clash with multiple Christmas parties and other events scheduled in the run up to the holidays.

There are also a number still speculating in Leinster House that Harris may ram though the Finance Bill next week and dissolve the Dáil before the bank holiday weekend. 

But this would mean he would have to opt for a longer election campaign as Harris has already indicated that November 15 will not be the date, perhaps taking the Irish rugby match being held that day into consideration.

A short, speedy three-week campaign ahead of a November 29 poll is now expected from Harris, who has built a brand on energy.