Elaine Loughlin: A short, sharp election campaign — but there's plenty of time for slip-ups

• the now dissolved government’s record on housing; 
• a co-ordinated pro-Palestine movement; 
• the threat of harassment on the election trail; 
• the lack of services for children with disabilities;
• the thorny and uncomfortable issue of immigration.

But it is the known unknowns that give political parties and candidates the jitters.

RESULTS: GENERAL ELECTION 2024

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Cork East

Cork North Central

Cork North West

Cork South Central

Cork South West

Kerry

Clare

Limerick City

Limerick County

Tipperary North

Tipperary South

Waterford

Dublin Bay North

Dublin Bay South

Dublin Central

Dublin Fingal East

Dublin Fingal West

Dublin Mid West

Dublin North West

Dublin Rathdown

Dublin South Central

Dublin South West

Dublin West

Dun Laoghaire

Carlow/Kilkenny

Kildare North

Kildare South

Laois

Longford/Westmeath

Louth

Meath East

Meath West

Offaly

Wexford

Wicklow

Wicklow/Wexford

Cavan/Monaghan

Donegal

Galway East

Galway West

Mayo

Roscommon/Galway

Sligo/Leitrim

Campaigns can swerve violently, with a perceived non-issue taking on a life of its own as voters seriously consider their options ahead of the poll.

One seasoned political staffer this week noted how annoyance around the pensions age slowly began to be raised more frequently on the doors with Fine Gael candidates in Cork back in 2020.

It’s an issue that parties certainly hadn’t predicted and, looking back, some within Simon Harris’s ranks acknowledge that it had blown up as a dominant talking point before they managed to get to grips with it.

This time around, Fine Gael is aware it needs to be more “agile” in responding to developing issues that are bubbling under the surface before they boil over.

Party volunteers have been asked to fill out questionnaires after canvassing stints, with information being funneled back to HQ and to director of elections Olwyn Enright.

This, it is hoped, will enable the party to quickly change its messaging or to redirect its focus mid-campaign.

Independents could threaten parties 

One known unknown is the large number of Independent candidates who will be running. 

Stopping a surge in support for a non-party voice may yet become the biggest challenge for the more established parties.

The boundary redraw, which has taken account of a growing population, will see 14 extra TDs elected to the next Dáil.

It provides extra scope in areas such as Cork North-Central and Mayo, which have both gone from four-seat constituencies to five-seaters. 

Constituencies with a larger number of seats not only make it easier for the larger parties to bring in a running mate, but also give more niche candidates or Independents an added opportunity.

Conversely, areas which have suffered from a seat reduction, such as the Taoiseach’s own Wicklow constituency, or those which have been split into two three-seaters, may descend into lengthy dogfights for the final seat.

Harder 'ground war' than June elections

Unlike June’s local and European elections, where the longer stretch in the evenings allowed candidates to canvass groups of people — whether that was outside GAA fields, at local festivals, or even at back-garden barbecues — this time it will be an abrasive ground war which will see candidates going door to door for individual votes during the shortening daylight hours.

Of course, the campaign has been underway for many months now, with hopefuls and those seeking to retain their seat reaching giddy fever pitch in recent days ahead of the official dissolution of the Dáil.

Under the protection of darkness on Thursday night, teams of volunteers were seen skulking around lamp posts up and down the country.

When voters woke up on Friday morning, they were greeted by beaming candidates asking for their number one vote in an election which, at that stage, hadn’t officially been called.

This enthusiasm could yet prove to be a costly as early erection of election posts is in breach of the Litter Pollution Act 1997.

'Right Here, Right Now'

With the Taoiseach stuck in the air en route back from an EU leaders meeting on Friday morning, the Tánaiste, who has reportedly been growing grumpy waiting on the election to be called, made sure Fianna Fáil got the jump on Simon Harris.

He was in great form as he appeared alongside his candidates and a massive moving billboard which was blaring Fatboy Slim’s ‘Right Here, Right Now’ on Merrion St.

In an eye-catching stunt, People Before Profit unfurled a 15m banner across Dublin’s Hapenny Bridge calling on the public to “End 100 years of FF/FG — Another Ireland is Possible”.

By the time Harris was making his way to a podium at the bottom of the steps of Government Buildings, the Fianna Fáil mobile ad had been replaced by a Sinn Féin mobile billboard suggesting to passers-by that it is now “time to change the government”.

For Sinn Féin, the timing of the election at last being called coincided with the sentencing of former party officer Michael McMonagle who has been jailed after pleading guilty to child sex offences. Facing down repeated questioning on the issue was not the start to a campaign Mary Lou McDonald would have chosen.

With the polls putting Fine Gael on around 25%, Fianna Fáil averaging out around 21%, and Sinn Féin lingering slightly behind on 19%, everything is to play for and a slight bounce up or down for any of the big three could dictate the make-up of the next government.

Prospect of a two-party coalition 

Based on the numbers, senior members of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were this week not only talking up the proposition of another term in coalition, but of the possibility of a government solely made up of the two Civil War parties.

A two-party coalition would certainly make for a stable government. But doing away with the mudguard of the Greens — or perhaps another smaller party or even a collection of Independents — may not be palatable to all.

It would certainly allow the opposition to fully sell the narrative that the two main political parties in this country have effectively merged.

Whether the four separate controversies that Sinn Féin has been grappling with continue to dominate the campaign could decide the fate of McDonald’s party. 

But, despite Sinn Féin's slow and steady decline in popularity from a high of 37% in the polls just two years ago, the party cannot be fully written off.

Politicians and political hopefuls should know that they are now entering a three-week danger zone. An exit poll from the 2020 general election revealed that less than half of voters had made their minds up before the campaign officially got underway.

Perhaps most startling was the fact that 8% of those who voted last time around only decided what way they were going to cast their ballots on the day itself, and a further 16% settled on their preferred candidates in the last couple of days of the campaign.

It means that votes are there to be won, or more importantly lost, in the coming weeks.