Elaine Loughlin: Spring in McDonald's step after poll puts Sinn Féin back in the game
Mary Lou McDonald knows that Independents, a diverse group that are also now sitting on 20% support, are her party's real threat this time around.
What a difference a few percentage points can make.
With just days before voters go to the polls, it feels like Sinn Féin is very much back in the game.
It was all blue skies as Mary Lou McDonald gathered with her frontbench to finalise plans for the remainder of the campaign as Sinn Féin digested the latest poll results, which puts it tied with Fianna Fáil on 20% — closely behind Fine Gael on 22%.
“I think the weather reflects our mood. This might be a winter election, but we have sunshine today," McDonald said.
“I know talking to people, particularly over the last week, this sense of purpose now, this sense of energy has come back very, very strongly."
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She added that the the mood is now "very reminiscent" of the last general election, during which Sinn Féin enjoyed a surge in support.
Whether Sinn Féin can repeat the outcome of the 2020 election, which saw the party return with 37 seats with many candidates topping polls and comfortably exceeding quotas, remains to be seen.
However, the latest poll — coupled with Fine Gael's multiple missteps during this campaign — means Sinn Féin can no longer be ruled out, as many were doing just a few weeks ago.
Having suffered a sustained decline from a high of 37% in the autumn of 2022 — dipping to around 18% just before the general election was called — Sinn Féin members had began to re-evaluate, especially in the wake of the Harris hop that saw Fine Gael increase its lead to around 24%.
However, with the three main parties now within two percentage points of each other, Sinn Féin has regained its confidence — and for good reason.
Many of those who had voted for change by favouring Sinn Féin candidates in 2020 had undoubtedly drifted in recent times. Polls and vox-pops have indicated that many people who are not happy with the outgoing Coalition would this time lend their support to Independents.
But could these floating voters return to McDonald now that there is once again a chance she could be leading the largest party — or at least be within a seat or two of the largest party — after the next general election?
McDonald knows that Independents, a diverse group that are also now sitting on 20% support, are her party's real threat this time around.
"We can lead that effort, an independent candidate can't. In fact, evidence of past elections reflects that in all likelihood, Independents might prop up Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael together all over again.
"I don't think that would be a good outcome," she told reporters on Sunday.
“I feel very, very strongly that the momentum that has grown behind us will continue to accelerate, and I believe that we can deliver that Government of change, and I would hope to to lead that government."
Simon Harris's unfortunate dismissal of a care worker in Kanturk over the weekend has also provided McDonald with an opportunity to stress the difference between her party and the outgoing Coalition, especially when it comes to low-paid workers, carers, and those with a disability.
As the winter sun continued to shine in through the glass facade of Dublin's CHQ building, McDonald said: "This is within our grasp, that we can have for the first time a Government that unapologetically and unambiguously states its case for workers, for families, and for communities, is hugely exciting.
"I believe we can transform people's lives. We can't do it overnight, but we can get this done, and we need the chance," McDonald said with an added passion in her voice.
