TG4 poll: Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil to oust Fine Gael in Donegal
Chart showing the predicted first-preference votes for the first nine candidates in TG4's general election poll for the Donegal constituency.
Both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil are on track to take two seats in Donegal, a new TG4 poll shows.
However, Fine Gael looks set to lose the seat it won in 2020.
Former Education Minister Joe McHugh, who will not run in this election, left the party following a vote on the mica remediation scheme and the depth of that campaign appears to have been focused largely on Fine Gael according to the poll.
The results of a TG4/Ipsos B&A Donegal constituency poll revealed on Nuacht TG4 on Tuesday evening show that Sinn Féin's finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty leads the way on 22% and that one percentage point separates the two Fianna Fáil candidates — Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher (13%) and outgoing Agriculture, Food and Marine Minister Charlie McConalogue (12%).
Mr McConalogue who is from Carndonagh, takes the Inishowen Fianna Fáil vote while Mr Gallagher the west Donegal vote.
Scroll for results in your area
In 2020, it went down to the wire between the two candidates, with Mr McConalogue eventually claiming a seat at the expense of the former junior minister.
The poll shows continued strong support for Sinn Féin in Donegal, ahead of the party's national polling.
Mr Doherty tops the poll well above the 17% quota needed at 22%. The party's chief whip Pádraig Mac Lochlainn is on 11% of the vote and is also well positioned to retain his seat, with the assistance of transfers from Noel Jordan (2%) who is running for Sinn Féin in the south of the constituency, and from Mr Doherty's surplus.
The poll was conducted by phone on Friday and Saturday of last week as nominations were closing. Two other independent candidates, Vincent Bradley and Arthur Mc Guinness, have since declared their candidature.
The poll shows that Fine Gael may not win a seat with John McNulty and Senator Nikki Bradley each on 6%.
Charles Ward of the 100% Redress Party is also polling at 6%.
Mr Ward wasn’t successful in the local elections in June, and it was speculated that 100% Redress would run one of the four elected councillors with a particular focus on the Inishowen peninsula.
Independent TD Thomas Pringle is on 11% and won a seat in 2020 with fewer first-preference votes than he registered in this poll.
This is the second of a series of TG4 / Ipsos B&A constituency polls as part of TG4’s election 2024 coverage. On Thursday Nuacht TG4 will reveal the results of the Mayo constituency, followed by Kerry on Tuesday 26 November.
The phone poll carries a sample of 531 which attaches a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points.
